Many ‘gurus’ seemed surprised by todays 9 point gain and scrambled to find ‘news’ to ‘explain’ this 2.67% rise. In my opinion news is the result, not the cause. By disregarding news and ONLY looking at the ever developing chart pattern, see past articles, there was no surprise...
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The AEX is still holding above the lower trend line. With the options expiration out of the way, the AEX is clear to pick direction. The USA indices were up on Friday (SP500, Nasdaq) while the DOW was flat due to bad IBM Q1 results. The preferred scenario still favors a bounce up from here...
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The AEX counts best as an ABCDE ending diagonal that needs 1 more leg up. See the April 12 article. Wave D either ended in February or is ending right now, in which case wave D is a triangle. Regardless, in both counts, wave E up is needed to complete the pattern.
Notice the extraordinary amount ...
Read MoreThe AEX is on its way to an important Fibonacci time relationship date. Note two important highs, 13-Jul-2007 and 18-Feb-2011. Using a standard 61.8% (golden ratio) and applying it to the 2 tops, we arrive at 30-Apr-2013 (when using trading days) or 11-May-2013 (calendar days).
Also note a short ter...
To look at short term turn signals in the market, we can look at ‘classic’ technical analysis indicators such as RSI, CCI, Stochastics and Moving Averages. While they certainly can be useful, the problem with these indicators is that they are all lagging indicators...
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