AEX Short Term Update

The AEX is on its way to an important Fibonacci time relationship date. Note two important highs, 13-Jul-2007 and 18-Feb-2011. Using a standard 61.8% (golden ratio) and applying it to the 2 tops, we arrive at 30-Apr-2013 (when using trading days) or 11-May-2013 (calendar days).
Also note a short term Fibo time relationship that targets 29-30 April.

12-Apr-2013 AEX

Big trend reversal straight ahead?

From the Sept-2011 low the AEX is moving up in a corrective pattern in what looks like a 3-3-5 Flat Elliott wave (marked as ABC). The C wave possibly subdivides in an a-b-c-d-e ending diagonal, which is a terminal move.

12-Apr-2013 AEX


In order to complete the pattern the AEX needs to make a slightly higher high above wave c (358.92). A good target is 364-370 where the AEX will hit the upper trendline and the Jupiter line (discussed here). For this pattern to stay valid, the AEX cannot exceed 372.16 (intraday) since wave e will be longer than c.

A failure to make a new top and a decline below the lower trend line would indicate a very weak index. Regardless, after the ending diagonal is completed, expect a rapid decline to where it started, which is point B.

Hold tight and start looking for some May puts. Actually, maybe get some April calls first :)


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