Monthly Archives June 2013

AEX Long Term Update

To keep things in perspective it is good to keep the long term outlook in mind. I do this in this post. First a bit of short term. The AEX is currently retracing a decline. Over the next several weeks I expect the area around 350-355 to be sufficient resistance...

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AEX short term update

130622 AEX

So what’s up? It’s pretty clear by now that the peak (May 28th) is in. The decline is steep and currently oversold. I’m not a fan of overbought/oversold indicators, since they can stay in an extreme for a long time...

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AEX recap and outlook

Let’s do a little recap first. The chart below is from May 16. I projected a top around the May 25th eclipse because the following indicators all seem to come together:

  • A complete Elliott wave count (a 1-2-3-4-5 or a A-B-C-D-E) 
  • The Eclipse, which often correlates with a trend reversal within 1-3 ...
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AEX update

While the AEX decline since the May high looks choppy on the intraday chart, it can be subdivided and counted as 9 sub-waves. And 9 sub-waves is an impulse. If this assessment is correct, which I believe, the implication is that this is the first move down of a larger down trend...

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AEX 348

The 7 trading days since the top brings the AEX right at the previously projected first area of support. See image. While the decline looks straight on this chart (like an impulse) on the intraday chart it is actually choppy...

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AEX Short Term Update

As projected earlier, the AEX did indeed bounce of the upper Jupiter line (red) and is now on its way to the first support region, around 350-355. Fridays spike lower was on higher than average volume (yellow arrow) so this probably  means the decline is not complete...

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Unilever Short Term Update

In the last Unilever article we wrote:

Unilever is approaching a Fibonacci price relationship at 33.30. See chart. Unilever’s uptrend is weakening. One indication of an ending diagonal is decreasing volume (yellow line at bottom). This move will soon be exhausted.

130516 Unilever Fibonacci

Zooming in (see the updated chart...

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