AEX short Term Update
This is my current working hypothesis. AEX going to 420 in the first week of September. Why? Well, there's a number of indications, most of them not shown on the chart. In short, several (Fibonacci)…
Subject
short term
25 dispatches.
Intraday Setup 101
As reported on Twitter ( @johnusa ) yesterday, the AEX (see image) was fast approaching one of its Jupiter lines (red) at around 446. As history has shown, this is often a point of reversal. If this…
AEX Short Term Update
Frequent readers know what's going on. Please read the previous articles to see what's going on here. In order for the longer term 'working model' to stay valid, the AEX needs to decline very soon…
AEX Short, Medium, Long Term Update
4 Charts, starting at Long Term, going to Short Term. The first chart (long term) has been discussed in earlier posts on this site. Medium Term the AEX started wave D (red) on Jan 15th ,2014. The…
AEX Short Term Update
A brief update on what *might* unfold over the next several days. The AEX appears to be completing a corrective Flat (a-b-c) which is retracing the wave 1 decline that started in January. A possible…
AEX closing in on target
The AEX has reached the upper trend-line dating back to 2011. So far, ALL important reversals in the past several years hit the Jupiter lines (explained here ) either intraday or end-of-day (red wave…
AEX Short Term Update
The AEX is finishing a small degree 5 wave that should bottom Monday (at least 375?), or early in the week. This move is part of a larger impulse wave that started in the second half of November. If…
AEX Short Term Update
Interesting developments coming up in the AEX. Over the last few weeks we've seen increased volatility, related to news events such as the USA debt ceiling hoax and the government shutdown. But news…
AEX Short Term Update
Wow, almost a month went by since the last update. That being said, the last update was on track and is still valid. Here's the image from that article: And here is the update for today: The AEX is…
AEX short term update
It has been a while since the last update. Below is a snapshot from the June 14th update . This was a bullish alternative view, that at first did not seem to play out. But after a larger than…
AEX short term update
So what's up? It's pretty clear by now that the peak (May 28th) is in. The decline is steep and currently oversold. I'm not a fan of overbought/oversold indicators, since they can stay in an extreme…
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AEX recap and outlook
Let's do a little recap first. The chart below is from May 16. I projected a top around the May 25th eclipse because the following indicators all seem to come together: A complete Elliott wave count…
AEX update
While the AEX decline since the May high looks choppy on the intraday chart, it can be subdivided and counted as 9 sub-waves. And 9 sub-waves is an impulse. If this assessment is correct, which I…
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AEX 348
The 7 trading days since the top brings the AEX right at the previously projected first area of support. See image. While the decline looks straight on this chart (like an impulse) on the intraday…
AEX Short Term Update
As projected earlier, the AEX did indeed bounce of the upper Jupiter line (red) and is now on its way to the first support region, around 350-355. Fridays spike lower was on higher than average…
Unilever Short Term Update
In the last Unilever article we wrote: Unilever is approaching a Fibonacci price relationship at 33.30. See chart. Unilever's uptrend is weakening. One indication of an ending diagonal is decreasing…
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AEX Alert: Possible Top
The AEX is 1 point away from the upper Jupiter channel line. This line is at 371 on Tuesday, slowly climbing to 372 on Friday. The AEX is in a similar situation as May 2012 where the Lunar Eclipse…
Unilever Short Term Update
Unilever is approaching a Fibonacci price relationship at 33.30. See chart. Zooming in (see chart below), Unilever's uptrend is weakening. One indication of an ending diagonal is decreasing volume…
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AEX short term update
The AEX is completing a large 3-3-5 Flat pattern according to the Elliott wave principle that started at the low in Feb '09. A large Fibonacci time ratio indicates a potential turn date at May 10th…
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ING Long & Short Term Update
The AEX, once heavy on financial stocks like ABN, Aegon, Fortis and ING, today only has ING and AGN left. Of these only ING with a 11% weight in the index still counts as a heavy weight. So what's in…
Surprise!
Many 'gurus' seemed surprised by todays 9 point gain and scrambled to find 'news' to 'explain' this 2.67% rise. In my opinion news is the result, not the cause. By disregarding news and ONLY looking…
AEX Weekend Update
The AEX is still holding above the lower trend line. With the options expiration out of the way, the AEX is clear to pick direction. The USA indices were up on Friday (SP500, Nasdaq) while the DOW…
AEX needs to bounce now
The AEX counts best as an ABCDE ending diagonal that needs 1 more leg up. See the April 12 article . Wave D either ended in February or is ending right now, in which case wave D is a triangle…
AEX Short Term Update
The AEX is on its way to an important Fibonacci time relationship date. Note two important highs, 13-Jul-2007 and 18-Feb-2011. Using a standard 61.8% (golden ratio) and applying it to the 2 tops, we…
AEX Short Term Update
To look at short term turn signals in the market, we can look at 'classic' technical analysis indicators such as RSI, CCI, Stochastics and Moving Averages. While they certainly can be useful, the…