AEX options, trading cycles, Elliott waves, financial astrology. A closed archive, 2013 to 2015.https://www.night-trading.com/enhttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-short-term-update-2/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-short-term-update-2/This is my current working hypothesis. AEX going to 420 in the first week of September. Why? Well, there's a number of indications, most of them not shown on the chart. In short, several (Fibonacci)…Thu, 13 Aug 2015 21:34:14 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/150122-intraday-setup-101/https://www.night-trading.com/150122-intraday-setup-101/As reported on Twitter ( @johnusa ) yesterday, the AEX (see image) was fast approaching one of its Jupiter lines (red) at around 446. As history has shown, this is often a point of reversal. If this…Thu, 22 Jan 2015 21:03:09 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/140921-long-term-updates/https://www.night-trading.com/140921-long-term-updates/It has been a long time since the last update. This doesn't mean lack of activity, several brief posts have been posted on Twitter @JohnUSA . Today, instead of the usual AEX updates, here are some…Sun, 21 Sep 2014 16:19:05 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/140506-aex-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/140506-aex-short-term-update/Frequent readers know what's going on. Please read the previous articles to see what's going on here. In order for the longer term 'working model' to stay valid, the AEX needs to decline very soon…Tue, 06 May 2014 20:50:13 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/140412-aex-short-medium-long-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/140412-aex-short-medium-long-term-update/4 Charts, starting at Long Term, going to Short Term. The first chart (long term) has been discussed in earlier posts on this site. Medium Term the AEX started wave D (red) on Jan 15th ,2014. The…Sat, 12 Apr 2014 15:39:35 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/140327-aex-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/140327-aex-short-term-update/A brief update on what *might* unfold over the next several days. The AEX appears to be completing a corrective Flat (a-b-c) which is retracing the wave 1 decline that started in January. A possible…Thu, 27 Mar 2014 21:25:58 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/140313-aex-thoughts-scribbles/https://www.night-trading.com/140313-aex-thoughts-scribbles/The AEX made a recovery high on Jan 15th, while the DOW made an ATH on Dec 31st. This is (so far) still consistent with a predicted high in 2013. See DOW chart at the bottom. It's interesting that…Thu, 13 Mar 2014 22:21:42 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/140218-aex-toppy/https://www.night-trading.com/140218-aex-toppy/Shown is the AEX with a modified Stochastics, the Moon Cycle (Sine wave) and Volume. Volume is dropping, indicating a weakening (up)trend. Stochastics is entering overbought territory. The next New…Tue, 18 Feb 2014 22:08:16 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/140126-unilever-update-nailed-it/https://www.night-trading.com/140126-unilever-update-nailed-it/Below is the Unilever chart from May 2013. See this post for full article. While UNI didn't reach the 33.30 target (it stopped at 33.09) it has since made an impressive 18% decline at the Oct 2013…Sun, 26 Jan 2014 13:53:03 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/140126-heineken-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/140126-heineken-short-term-update/Heineken shows multiple patterns that it justifies its own post today. Since the top in March last year, HEI appears to be completing an A-B-C corrective pattern. Since A and B look like a 3-wave and…Sun, 26 Jan 2014 13:35:25 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-closing-in-on-target/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-closing-in-on-target/The AEX has reached the upper trend-line dating back to 2011. So far, ALL important reversals in the past several years hit the Jupiter lines (explained here ) either intraday or end-of-day (red wave…Mon, 20 Jan 2014 12:25:42 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-short-term-update/The AEX is finishing a small degree 5 wave that should bottom Monday (at least 375?), or early in the week. This move is part of a larger impulse wave that started in the second half of November. If…Sun, 15 Dec 2013 23:08:30 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-end-game-2021/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-end-game-2021/Time for an update on the long term chart. The chart below is slightly adjusted from the June update, but the concept stays the same. Unlike the DOW Jones, which is setting all time highs at each…Mon, 18 Nov 2013 12:37:43 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-short-term-update-131020/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-short-term-update-131020/Interesting developments coming up in the AEX. Over the last few weeks we've seen increased volatility, related to news events such as the USA debt ceiling hoax and the government shutdown. But news…Sun, 20 Oct 2013 21:56:47 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130919-aex-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130919-aex-short-term-update/Wow, almost a month went by since the last update. That being said, the last update was on track and is still valid. Here's the image from that article: And here is the update for today: The AEX is…Thu, 19 Sep 2013 20:56:43 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130818-aex-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130818-aex-short-term-update/It has been a while since the last update. Below is a snapshot from the June 14th update . This was a bullish alternative view, that at first did not seem to play out. But after a larger than…Sun, 18 Aug 2013 14:58:42 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/coach-leading-indicator/https://www.night-trading.com/coach-leading-indicator/Looks like luxury branch 'Coach' is a leading indicator for what's ahead for the AEX (and related indices). Top b circle end of July, dip B in Sept-Oct, and dip (C) in 2014. This saves me a lot of…Thu, 04 Jul 2013 18:19:52 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130628-aex-long-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130628-aex-long-term-update/To keep things in perspective it is good to keep the long term outlook in mind. I do this in this post. First a bit of short term. The AEX is currently retracing a decline. Over the next several…Sun, 30 Jun 2013 20:55:32 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130621-aex-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130621-aex-short-term-update/So what's up? It's pretty clear by now that the peak (May 28th) is in. The decline is steep and currently oversold. I'm not a fan of overbought/oversold indicators, since they can stay in an extreme…Sat, 22 Jun 2013 13:39:03 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130614-aex-recap-and-outlook/https://www.night-trading.com/130614-aex-recap-and-outlook/Let's do a little recap first. The chart below is from May 16. I projected a top around the May 25th eclipse because the following indicators all seem to come together: A complete Elliott wave count…Fri, 14 Jun 2013 15:39:04 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130612-aex-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130612-aex-update/While the AEX decline since the May high looks choppy on the intraday chart, it can be subdivided and counted as 9 sub-waves. And 9 sub-waves is an impulse. If this assessment is correct, which I…Wed, 12 Jun 2013 20:26:21 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-348/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-348/The 7 trading days since the top brings the AEX right at the previously projected first area of support. See image. While the decline looks straight on this chart (like an impulse) on the intraday…Wed, 05 Jun 2013 20:16:08 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130531-aex-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130531-aex-short-term-update/As projected earlier, the AEX did indeed bounce of the upper Jupiter line (red) and is now on its way to the first support region, around 350-355. Fridays spike lower was on higher than average…Sat, 01 Jun 2013 14:18:39 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130531-unilever-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130531-unilever-short-term-update/In the last Unilever article we wrote: Unilever is approaching a Fibonacci price relationship at 33.30. See chart. Unilever's uptrend is weakening. One indication of an ending diagonal is decreasing…Sat, 01 Jun 2013 13:08:11 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130520-aex-alert-possible-top/https://www.night-trading.com/130520-aex-alert-possible-top/The AEX is 1 point away from the upper Jupiter channel line. This line is at 371 on Tuesday, slowly climbing to 372 on Friday. The AEX is in a similar situation as May 2012 where the Lunar Eclipse…Mon, 20 May 2013 20:58:59 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130516-unilever-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130516-unilever-short-term-update/Unilever is approaching a Fibonacci price relationship at 33.30. See chart. Zooming in (see chart below), Unilever's uptrend is weakening. One indication of an ending diagonal is decreasing volume…Thu, 16 May 2013 19:45:09 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-moon-jupiter-cycle-130516/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-moon-jupiter-cycle-130516/AEX is approaching the next Jupiter channel line (red), that has been a good indicator of turning points in the past. See image below. Today the line stands at 370 and is slowly moving up to 371-372…Thu, 16 May 2013 16:25:25 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130508-aex-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130508-aex-short-term-update/The AEX is completing a large 3-3-5 Flat pattern according to the Elliott wave principle that started at the low in Feb '09. A large Fibonacci time ratio indicates a potential turn date at May 10th…Wed, 08 May 2013 17:41:28 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/may-9-may-10-2013-annular-solar-eclipse/https://www.night-trading.com/may-9-may-10-2013-annular-solar-eclipse/The Nasdaq 100 index is now in a Fibonacci time frame between May 7th and May 11th. See chart. This coincides with a Solar eclipse on May 9 (May 10 in Europe). A good time to take some profits?Tue, 07 May 2013 21:58:03 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-dax-cac-correlation/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-dax-cac-correlation/AEX, DAX, CAC correlation It is still a common belief that the AEX follows the DAX. As I have been saying for years now, this is not the case. The AEX follows the CAC much closer than the DAX. The…Tue, 07 May 2013 12:26:53 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/nasdaq-100-update/https://www.night-trading.com/nasdaq-100-update/Just a quick note here. the Nasdaq 100 index might be entering a Fibonacci time frame between May 7th and May 11th. See chart.Mon, 06 May 2013 01:00:32 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/dow-2018-2021-the-year-of-the-ox/https://www.night-trading.com/dow-2018-2021-the-year-of-the-ox/DOW Jones Industrial & Fibonacci To look at important turning points in the market, it often helps to use Fibonacci time ratios. In the chart below I use a very(!) long term price chart. By taking…Sat, 04 May 2013 18:27:59 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130503-ing-long-short-term-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130503-ing-long-short-term-update/The AEX, once heavy on financial stocks like ABN, Aegon, Fortis and ING, today only has ING and AGN left. Of these only ING with a 11% weight in the index still counts as a heavy weight. So what's in…Fri, 03 May 2013 12:42:43 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/the-ecb-the-sun-and-neptune/https://www.night-trading.com/the-ecb-the-sun-and-neptune/As the ECB was announcing its interest rate decision, the Sun was transiting. As a matter of fact, the market started moving a few minutes before, right as the Sun 'hits'. Frontrunning? Also note…Thu, 02 May 2013 09:57:42 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130501-dow-jones-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130501-dow-jones-update/The support line from Dec 2012 first broke in April, then got retested. It hugged the trend-line for 6 straight trading days and now appears to be leaving it, the so called 'kiss goodbye'. The first…Wed, 01 May 2013 19:52:43 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-topping-process-and-an-alternate-view/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-topping-process-and-an-alternate-view/The AEX is in a topping process. While the Elliott pattern calls for a new slightly higher high (360-365) as described earlier, the AEX appears to be stalling. If we combine this with the cycle…Tue, 30 Apr 2013 11:21:11 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/arizona-central-bank/https://www.night-trading.com/arizona-central-bank/No Update this weekend as I was doing some traveling. Along the way I found this photo opportunity...Sun, 28 Apr 2013 22:23:05 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130423-surprise/https://www.night-trading.com/130423-surprise/Many 'gurus' seemed surprised by todays 9 point gain and scrambled to find 'news' to 'explain' this 2.67% rise. In my opinion news is the result, not the cause. By disregarding news and ONLY looking…Tue, 23 Apr 2013 10:21:47 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/open-interest-index-oix/https://www.night-trading.com/open-interest-index-oix/This article explains what the effect of open interest is on options, and how we construct an indicator based on this data. This indicator was developed here and is called 'Open Interest Index' or…Mon, 22 Apr 2013 09:00:47 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/cloud-volume-indicator/https://www.night-trading.com/cloud-volume-indicator/How to predict support & resistance levels using volume? Volume by itself contains too much noise to be a useful indicator, so several tools are available to make volume more useful: RoC (rate of…Sun, 21 Apr 2013 07:00:24 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130420-aex-weekend-update/https://www.night-trading.com/130420-aex-weekend-update/The AEX is still holding above the lower trend line. With the options expiration out of the way, the AEX is clear to pick direction. The USA indices were up on Friday (SP500, Nasdaq) while the DOW…Sat, 20 Apr 2013 10:39:09 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/aex-april-expiration-was-textbook/https://www.night-trading.com/aex-april-expiration-was-textbook/It's the Third Friday of the month, so the AEX/FTI options expired. The expiration period is from 15:30 to 16:00, after which the settlement price is set, which was 340.68. The optimal expiration…Fri, 19 Apr 2013 18:23:47 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130417-aex-needs-to-bounce-now/https://www.night-trading.com/130417-aex-needs-to-bounce-now/The AEX counts best as an ABCDE ending diagonal that needs 1 more leg up. See the April 12 article . Wave D either ended in February or is ending right now, in which case wave D is a triangle…Wed, 17 Apr 2013 23:23:22 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130412-aex-astro-hits/https://www.night-trading.com/130412-aex-astro-hits/This chart shows all the 'astro hits' for the week as described here and calculated here . The colors indicate rising (blue), transit (orange) and setting (red). We already know that Jupiter is the…Sat, 13 Apr 2013 11:30:19 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130412-aex/https://www.night-trading.com/130412-aex/The AEX is on its way to an important Fibonacci time relationship date. Note two important highs, 13-Jul-2007 and 18-Feb-2011. Using a standard 61.8% (golden ratio) and applying it to the 2 tops, we…Fri, 12 Apr 2013 11:57:03 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/economic-sunshine/https://www.night-trading.com/economic-sunshine/While Royce Tostrams might be a "market guru", there are 2 things he doesn't know anything about. Cycles & Cars. Let's start with cycles. He posted an article in the Dutch Financial Telegraph titled…Sat, 06 Apr 2013 17:30:15 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/130405-aex/https://www.night-trading.com/130405-aex/To look at short term turn signals in the market, we can look at 'classic' technical analysis indicators such as RSI, CCI, Stochastics and Moving Averages. While they certainly can be useful, the…Sat, 06 Apr 2013 10:45:49 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/are-we-there-yet/https://www.night-trading.com/are-we-there-yet/The short answer is "No", not by a long shot. As I have said earlier, I think the market will only bottom in 2021 and in this article I will explain why I believe that. To look at important turning…Tue, 19 Mar 2013 20:40:00 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/mercury-turns-direct/https://www.night-trading.com/mercury-turns-direct/Typically, the planets shift slightly eastward from night to night, moving slowly against the backdrop of stars. Sometimes, however, they change direction. For a few weeks/months, they will move west…Sun, 17 Mar 2013 05:05:16 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/astro-hits/https://www.night-trading.com/astro-hits/In financial astrology, planetary positions correlate to changes in the market. Certain positions and planets are more important than others. The most significant positions are the rising time, the…Fri, 15 Mar 2013 12:44:49 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/browsers/https://www.night-trading.com/browsers/Over the next few weeks, we will be tweaking this site to improve its usability. As most web developers know, building a site takes 20% of the time, and then making it work on Internet Explorer takes…Thu, 07 Mar 2013 18:41:33 GMThttps://www.night-trading.com/i-am-back/https://www.night-trading.com/i-am-back/It has been a long time since I talked about 'the market' in this format. When I started night-trading.com in 1997, the web was just starting to get popular and there weren't even many online brokers…Fri, 01 Mar 2013 22:56:35 GMT