Intraday Setup 101
As reported on Twitter ( @johnusa ) yesterday, the AEX (see image) was fast approaching one of its Jupiter lines (red) at around 446. As history has shown, this is often a point of reversal. If this…
Subject
Elliott
24 dispatches.
AGN, ASML, BEL20, HEI, ING, KPN, PHI, TPG, UN long term updates
It has been a long time since the last update. This doesn't mean lack of activity, several brief posts have been posted on Twitter @JohnUSA . Today, instead of the usual AEX updates, here are some…
AEX Short Term Update
Frequent readers know what's going on. Please read the previous articles to see what's going on here. In order for the longer term 'working model' to stay valid, the AEX needs to decline very soon…
AEX Short, Medium, Long Term Update
4 Charts, starting at Long Term, going to Short Term. The first chart (long term) has been discussed in earlier posts on this site. Medium Term the AEX started wave D (red) on Jan 15th ,2014. The…
AEX Short Term Update
A brief update on what *might* unfold over the next several days. The AEX appears to be completing a corrective Flat (a-b-c) which is retracing the wave 1 decline that started in January. A possible…
AEX Long Term Thoughts & Scribbles
The AEX made a recovery high on Jan 15th, while the DOW made an ATH on Dec 31st. This is (so far) still consistent with a predicted high in 2013. See DOW chart at the bottom. It's interesting that…
Heineken Short Term Update
Heineken shows multiple patterns that it justifies its own post today. Since the top in March last year, HEI appears to be completing an A-B-C corrective pattern. Since A and B look like a 3-wave and…
AEX closing in on target
The AEX has reached the upper trend-line dating back to 2011. So far, ALL important reversals in the past several years hit the Jupiter lines (explained here ) either intraday or end-of-day (red wave…
AEX Short Term Update
The AEX is finishing a small degree 5 wave that should bottom Monday (at least 375?), or early in the week. This move is part of a larger impulse wave that started in the second half of November. If…
AEX: End Game 2021
Time for an update on the long term chart. The chart below is slightly adjusted from the June update, but the concept stays the same. Unlike the DOW Jones, which is setting all time highs at each…
AEX Short Term Update
Interesting developments coming up in the AEX. Over the last few weeks we've seen increased volatility, related to news events such as the USA debt ceiling hoax and the government shutdown. But news…
AEX short term update
It has been a while since the last update. Below is a snapshot from the June 14th update . This was a bullish alternative view, that at first did not seem to play out. But after a larger than…
Coach: leading indicator?
Looks like luxury branch 'Coach' is a leading indicator for what's ahead for the AEX (and related indices). Top b circle end of July, dip B in Sept-Oct, and dip (C) in 2014. This saves me a lot of…
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AEX Long Term Update
To keep things in perspective it is good to keep the long term outlook in mind. I do this in this post. First a bit of short term. The AEX is currently retracing a decline. Over the next several…
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AEX recap and outlook
Let's do a little recap first. The chart below is from May 16. I projected a top around the May 25th eclipse because the following indicators all seem to come together: A complete Elliott wave count…
AEX Moon Jupiter cycle
AEX is approaching the next Jupiter channel line (red), that has been a good indicator of turning points in the past. See image below. Today the line stands at 370 and is slowly moving up to 371-372…
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AEX short term update
The AEX is completing a large 3-3-5 Flat pattern according to the Elliott wave principle that started at the low in Feb '09. A large Fibonacci time ratio indicates a potential turn date at May 10th…
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ING Long & Short Term Update
The AEX, once heavy on financial stocks like ABN, Aegon, Fortis and ING, today only has ING and AGN left. Of these only ING with a 11% weight in the index still counts as a heavy weight. So what's in…
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AEX topping process and an alternate view
The AEX is in a topping process. While the Elliott pattern calls for a new slightly higher high (360-365) as described earlier, the AEX appears to be stalling. If we combine this with the cycle…
Surprise!
Many 'gurus' seemed surprised by todays 9 point gain and scrambled to find 'news' to 'explain' this 2.67% rise. In my opinion news is the result, not the cause. By disregarding news and ONLY looking…
AEX Weekend Update
The AEX is still holding above the lower trend line. With the options expiration out of the way, the AEX is clear to pick direction. The USA indices were up on Friday (SP500, Nasdaq) while the DOW…
AEX needs to bounce now
The AEX counts best as an ABCDE ending diagonal that needs 1 more leg up. See the April 12 article . Wave D either ended in February or is ending right now, in which case wave D is a triangle…
AEX Short Term Update
The AEX is on its way to an important Fibonacci time relationship date. Note two important highs, 13-Jul-2007 and 18-Feb-2011. Using a standard 61.8% (golden ratio) and applying it to the 2 tops, we…
Hitting bottom, are we there yet?
The short answer is "No", not by a long shot. As I have said earlier, I think the market will only bottom in 2021 and in this article I will explain why I believe that. To look at important turning…