AEX short Term Update
This is my current working hypothesis. AEX going to 420 in the first week of September. Why? Well, there's a number of indications, most of them not shown on the chart. In short, several (Fibonacci)…
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aex
36 dispatches.
Intraday Setup 101
As reported on Twitter ( @johnusa ) yesterday, the AEX (see image) was fast approaching one of its Jupiter lines (red) at around 446. As history has shown, this is often a point of reversal. If this…
AEX Short Term Update
Frequent readers know what's going on. Please read the previous articles to see what's going on here. In order for the longer term 'working model' to stay valid, the AEX needs to decline very soon…
AEX Short, Medium, Long Term Update
4 Charts, starting at Long Term, going to Short Term. The first chart (long term) has been discussed in earlier posts on this site. Medium Term the AEX started wave D (red) on Jan 15th ,2014. The…
AEX Short Term Update
A brief update on what *might* unfold over the next several days. The AEX appears to be completing a corrective Flat (a-b-c) which is retracing the wave 1 decline that started in January. A possible…
AEX Long Term Thoughts & Scribbles
The AEX made a recovery high on Jan 15th, while the DOW made an ATH on Dec 31st. This is (so far) still consistent with a predicted high in 2013. See DOW chart at the bottom. It's interesting that…
AEX toppy
Shown is the AEX with a modified Stochastics, the Moon Cycle (Sine wave) and Volume. Volume is dropping, indicating a weakening (up)trend. Stochastics is entering overbought territory. The next New…
AEX closing in on target
The AEX has reached the upper trend-line dating back to 2011. So far, ALL important reversals in the past several years hit the Jupiter lines (explained here ) either intraday or end-of-day (red wave…
AEX Short Term Update
The AEX is finishing a small degree 5 wave that should bottom Monday (at least 375?), or early in the week. This move is part of a larger impulse wave that started in the second half of November. If…
AEX: End Game 2021
Time for an update on the long term chart. The chart below is slightly adjusted from the June update, but the concept stays the same. Unlike the DOW Jones, which is setting all time highs at each…
AEX Short Term Update
Interesting developments coming up in the AEX. Over the last few weeks we've seen increased volatility, related to news events such as the USA debt ceiling hoax and the government shutdown. But news…
AEX Short Term Update
Wow, almost a month went by since the last update. That being said, the last update was on track and is still valid. Here's the image from that article: And here is the update for today: The AEX is…
AEX short term update
It has been a while since the last update. Below is a snapshot from the June 14th update . This was a bullish alternative view, that at first did not seem to play out. But after a larger than…
Coach: leading indicator?
Looks like luxury branch 'Coach' is a leading indicator for what's ahead for the AEX (and related indices). Top b circle end of July, dip B in Sept-Oct, and dip (C) in 2014. This saves me a lot of…
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AEX Long Term Update
To keep things in perspective it is good to keep the long term outlook in mind. I do this in this post. First a bit of short term. The AEX is currently retracing a decline. Over the next several…
AEX short term update
So what's up? It's pretty clear by now that the peak (May 28th) is in. The decline is steep and currently oversold. I'm not a fan of overbought/oversold indicators, since they can stay in an extreme…
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AEX recap and outlook
Let's do a little recap first. The chart below is from May 16. I projected a top around the May 25th eclipse because the following indicators all seem to come together: A complete Elliott wave count…
AEX update
While the AEX decline since the May high looks choppy on the intraday chart, it can be subdivided and counted as 9 sub-waves. And 9 sub-waves is an impulse. If this assessment is correct, which I…
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AEX 348
The 7 trading days since the top brings the AEX right at the previously projected first area of support. See image. While the decline looks straight on this chart (like an impulse) on the intraday…
AEX Short Term Update
As projected earlier, the AEX did indeed bounce of the upper Jupiter line (red) and is now on its way to the first support region, around 350-355. Fridays spike lower was on higher than average…
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AEX Alert: Possible Top
The AEX is 1 point away from the upper Jupiter channel line. This line is at 371 on Tuesday, slowly climbing to 372 on Friday. The AEX is in a similar situation as May 2012 where the Lunar Eclipse…
AEX Moon Jupiter cycle
AEX is approaching the next Jupiter channel line (red), that has been a good indicator of turning points in the past. See image below. Today the line stands at 370 and is slowly moving up to 371-372…
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AEX short term update
The AEX is completing a large 3-3-5 Flat pattern according to the Elliott wave principle that started at the low in Feb '09. A large Fibonacci time ratio indicates a potential turn date at May 10th…
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AEX, DAX, CAC correlation
AEX, DAX, CAC correlation It is still a common belief that the AEX follows the DAX. As I have been saying for years now, this is not the case. The AEX follows the CAC much closer than the DAX. The…
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The ECB, the Sun and Neptune
As the ECB was announcing its interest rate decision, the Sun was transiting. As a matter of fact, the market started moving a few minutes before, right as the Sun 'hits'. Frontrunning? Also note…
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AEX topping process and an alternate view
The AEX is in a topping process. While the Elliott pattern calls for a new slightly higher high (360-365) as described earlier, the AEX appears to be stalling. If we combine this with the cycle…
Surprise!
Many 'gurus' seemed surprised by todays 9 point gain and scrambled to find 'news' to 'explain' this 2.67% rise. In my opinion news is the result, not the cause. By disregarding news and ONLY looking…
AEX Weekend Update
The AEX is still holding above the lower trend line. With the options expiration out of the way, the AEX is clear to pick direction. The USA indices were up on Friday (SP500, Nasdaq) while the DOW…
AEX: April expiration was textbook
It's the Third Friday of the month, so the AEX/FTI options expired. The expiration period is from 15:30 to 16:00, after which the settlement price is set, which was 340.68. The optimal expiration…
AEX needs to bounce now
The AEX counts best as an ABCDE ending diagonal that needs 1 more leg up. See the April 12 article . Wave D either ended in February or is ending right now, in which case wave D is a triangle…
This weeks Astro Hits
This chart shows all the 'astro hits' for the week as described here and calculated here . The colors indicate rising (blue), transit (orange) and setting (red). We already know that Jupiter is the…
AEX Short Term Update
The AEX is on its way to an important Fibonacci time relationship date. Note two important highs, 13-Jul-2007 and 18-Feb-2011. Using a standard 61.8% (golden ratio) and applying it to the 2 tops, we…
Economic Sunshine?
While Royce Tostrams might be a "market guru", there are 2 things he doesn't know anything about. Cycles & Cars. Let's start with cycles. He posted an article in the Dutch Financial Telegraph titled…
AEX Short Term Update
To look at short term turn signals in the market, we can look at 'classic' technical analysis indicators such as RSI, CCI, Stochastics and Moving Averages. While they certainly can be useful, the…
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Astro Hits
In financial astrology, planetary positions correlate to changes in the market. Certain positions and planets are more important than others. The most significant positions are the rising time, the…
I'm back!
It has been a long time since I talked about 'the market' in this format. When I started night-trading.com in 1997, the web was just starting to get popular and there weren't even many online brokers…