Elliott tagged posts

AEX short term update

It has been a while since the last update. Below is a snapshot from the June 14th update. This was a bullish alternative view, that at first did not seem to play out. But after a larger than anticipated correction, the AEX recovered to new highs. This is where we are now.
130520 AEX bullish

So what’s going on? ...

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Coach: leading indicator?

Looks like luxury branch ‘Coach’ is a leading indicator for what’s ahead for the AEX (and related indices). Top b circle end of July, dip B in Sept-Oct, and dip (C) in 2014. This saves me a lot of work :-)

130704 Coach

Image credit: Elliottwave.com

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AEX Long Term Update

To keep things in perspective it is good to keep the long term outlook in mind. I do this in this post. First a bit of short term. The AEX is currently retracing a decline. Over the next several weeks I expect the area around 350-355 to be sufficient resistance...

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AEX recap and outlook

Let’s do a little recap first. The chart below is from May 16. I projected a top around the May 25th eclipse because the following indicators all seem to come together:

  • A complete Elliott wave count (a 1-2-3-4-5 or a A-B-C-D-E) 
  • The Eclipse, which often correlates with a trend reversal within 1-3 ...
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AEX Moon Jupiter cycle

AEX is approaching the next Jupiter channel line (red), that has been a good indicator of turning points in the past. See image below. Today the line stands at 370 and is slowly moving up to 371-372 on May 24-27.

In the bottom of the chart I added the Moon cycle, showing the New Moons (highs) and Fu...

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AEX short term update

The AEX is completing a large 3-3-5 Flat pattern according to the Elliott wave principle that started at the low in Feb ’09.

130508 AEX

A large Fibonacci time ratio indicates a potential turn date at May 10th (in calendar days). The same ratio can be found in the Nasdaq 100. See below.

130508 AEX

Zooming in, wave C of ...

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ING Long & Short Term Update

The AEX, once heavy on financial stocks like ABN, Aegon, Fortis and ING, today only has ING and AGN left. Of these only ING with a 11% weight in the index still counts as a heavy weight. So what’s in store for ING long term and short term?
130503 ING long term

ING appears to be tracing out a standard 5 wave impulse as ...

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AEX topping process and an alternate view

130430 AEX

The AEX is in a topping process. While the Elliott pattern calls for a new slightly higher high (360-365) as described earlier, the AEX appears to be stalling. If we combine this with the cycle count, we can only conclude that something else is going on...

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Surprise!

Many ‘gurus’ seemed surprised by todays 9 point gain and scrambled to find ‘news’ to ‘explain’ this 2.67% rise. In my opinion news is the result, not the cause. By disregarding news and ONLY looking at the ever developing chart pattern, see past articles, there was no surprise...

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AEX Weekend Update

The AEX is still holding above the lower trend line. With the options expiration out of the way, the AEX is clear to pick direction. The USA indices were up on Friday (SP500, Nasdaq) while the DOW was flat due to bad IBM Q1 results. The preferred scenario still favors a bounce up from here...

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