AEX: End Game 2021

Time for an update on the long term chart. The chart below is slightly adjusted from the June update, but the concept stays the same. Unlike the DOW Jones, which is setting all time highs at each Fibonacci year, the AEX and the European market in general is setting lower highs. If that trend continues we end up with something like this:

Unlike the June chart, this chart better fits all the ‘requirements’:

- Lower highs at each Fibonacci year starting in 2000: 2008,2013,2016,2018,2019
- Elliott wave count
- Regular cycles (red)

Shorter term, the index needs to make a high soon (in 2013 or first weeks of 2014). With bullish market sentiment at all time highs, this will still fit very well with the longer term outlook. If correct, 2014 will not be a good year. Whether this will be tradable (options anyone?) remains the big question.

For reference, below is the long term DOW chart. With unlimited ‘QE’ the DOW might as well keep making new highs in nominal terms (not in Gold or $). 

And a possible Elliot wave count…