ING Long & Short Term Update

The AEX, once heavy on financial stocks like ABN, Aegon, Fortis and ING, today only has ING and AGN left. Of these only ING with a 11% weight in the index still counts as a heavy weight. So what’s in store for ING long term and short term?
130503 ING long term

ING appears to be tracing out a standard 5 wave impulse as defined by the Elliott wave principle. It is safe to say that since the all time high in 2000, the stock is in a bear market.

Can the March 2009 low of 2.30 be ‘the’ bottom? It is possible since the decline from the all time high was 95%. But it is not likely. The move since the all time low (yellow 3) is choppy, it does not look like the start of a new bull move, which should look impulsive. Instead, ING looks like it might be tracing out a contracting triangle. If this is indeed the case, then the end of wave 4 (yellow 4) must stay below the bottom of wave 1  at 8.55. Note that the lines are drawn to illustrate the shape, not necessarily the timing. Once wave 4 is complete the final (yes, this is terminal) move to the wave 5 low will unfold. This will probably be in the first half of 2021, as has been described elsewhere on this site, such as here.

By then ING either does not longer exist in its current form, or it’ll be the buying opportunity of a life time. What about the ultimate low at 0.45, a 99% decline from the All Time High, and the equivalent of 1 former Dutch guilder? By 2021, the Euro probably doesn’t exist anymore, which is good for ING, because it will avoid ING from becoming a penny stock! Because that would be kind of bad :)

130503 ING short term

Short term, ING is retracing the decline from Jan-Apr of this year. It is currently at about the Fibonacci 38% level.

The chart shows ING’s price with the ‘Volume Cloud Indicator’. More about this elsewhere on this site.  Several arrows show where support and resistance caused ING to temporarily stall or reverse course.

Short term ING will be entering an area of resistance between 6.50 and 7 (red area), which not coincidentally also overlaps with 3 Fibonacci retracement levels. Since the longer term trend is down, I expect this resistance area to hold.

Wow, reading back reviewing this article, this is actually kind of depressing…

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